By: Olivier Woeffray
Forum
June 18, 2018
When we think about the future, most of us try to predict it by extrapolating from a wide range of assumptions that we make about today. But most predictions tend to be wrong, from the automobile being written off as a “fad” in 1903 to a 1977 article querying why anyone would want a computer in their home.
A context of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity only exacerbates the likelihood of error.
We propose a different way to explore the future, using the concept of critical uncertainty. This allows us to consider a few plausible futures and become more resilient to the challenges they hold. It reduces the risk of blind spots and unwelcome surprises. It can also help us identify ways in which we can proactively shaping the future.
We have aggregated the results of a call to identify critical uncertainties. We analysed more than 90 answers and articles shared by members of our network of experts, using text-based software. Several patterns and commonalities were identified. The two most significant ideas are explored below.